Why did cotton imports halve year-on-year in November?

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China's total cotton import in November 2021 was about 100000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 51%, which was also lower than the total import in the same period in 2019 (105100 tons), but it increased by 37400 tons compared with the cotton import in October, with a month-on-month increase of 59.74%. Among them, American cotton, Indian cotton and Brazilian cotton still firmly occupy the top three. Although the import volume of Australian cotton, West African cotton and cotton from other producing areas continues to be weak, the proportion rebounds.

Why did November's cotton imports "halve" year-on-year? Industry analysis mainly includes the following reasons:

First, in November, the main contract of ice cotton futures continued to oscillate at a high level in the range of 110-118.50 cents / pound (falling below the integer level of 110 cents / pound and 107 cents / pound on November 30). The quotation of internal and external disks of imported cotton was significantly higher than the psychological price of cotton textile enterprises and traders; Second, in October / November, the destocking effect of bonded American cotton and Brazilian cotton at the port was very significant. The efforts of China Textile Group / China cotton group to purchase high-quality foreign cotton spot and put resources into the cotton textile market also continued to slow down. The problems such as large batches of remaining bonded cotton, large quality differences and high staple of Brazilian cotton were also more prominent than in the early stage; Third, in November, in 2021 / 22, high-quality and high-grade Xinjiang cotton was successively sold to mainland consumer areas, and then the disk price of Zheng Mian cf2205 contract broke continuously in late November, causing domestic cotton related enterprises to actively point the price and replenish the base difference, and the inquiry and shipment of foreign cotton slowed down significantly; Fourth, since September 2021, with the production capacity of textile and clothing enterprises in Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, India and other countries gradually returning to the pre epidemic level and the soaring sea freight from China to major ports in Southeast Asia, the trend of orders from Europe, America, Japan and South Korea returning to Southeast Asia is very obvious, and the consumption demand of Chinese textile and clothing enterprises for imported cotton and imported cotton yarn has declined rapidly; Fifth, it is not easy to use the additional sliding tariff cotton import quota in 2021, and there are few opportunities for cotton importing enterprises and middlemen to enter the market. Therefore, the transaction between the buyer and the seller is still dominated by the 1% tariff quota; In addition, some cotton mills above Designated Size have signed the shipping schedule of Brazilian cotton and American cotton in November / December, so the 1% quota can be described as "raising the pocket and showing the elbow".

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